Our forecast track record
Every day we save the playability score each course shows for tomorrow's tee times. After those rounds, we score the same tee times again from the weather that was actually recorded at the nearest weather station, and publish how close we were. Nothing is left out.
We started checking our forecasts recently. The first results appear once a full day of day-ahead forecasts has been played out (5341 tee times are waiting now). Check back soon.
How the check works
- Day-ahead, like you plan. The forecast we check is the one shown the day before, not a last-minute update.
- The real weather. Observations come from the nearest airport weather station to each course (National Weather Service data), hour by hour.
- Same yardstick on both sides. Both scores use the same formula and inputs. Weather stations don't measure heat stress directly, so heat is judged by the feels-like temperature on both sides; recorded rain or thunder counts as a certainty.
- Limits. A station can be a few miles from a course, or at a different elevation, and a few station gaps mean some tee times can't be checked. Those are left out rather than guessed.
We'll also add ratings from golfers after their round, to check how the score matches how the course actually felt.